You can lead JW's to Facts, but you cannot make them think !
Too true Phizzy.
Just a thought as a corollary to your excellent post Doug. You show how prophetic disappointment is no barrier to the continuation of the cult. I love your case of Thomas Beverly who promised the world to end in 1697 and afterward claimed it had ended... An interesting and blunt strategy to cope with the cognitive dissonance.
I think the adventist (small ‘a’) hopes become irrationally fixated in the individual and the trade-off is the sense of enjoying a religious certainty in an unpredictable life. Forget common sense... Glory Allelluia!
The same total denial of failure as with Beverly, was the Watchtower’s foundational statement by CT Russell in 1879 in defence of the failure of the Adventist (big A) expectation of 1874. It did happen after all, he said ...but invisibly! (Pull the other leg.)
These are the very pathetic and insubstantial foundations on which the Watchtower corporate edifice was built.
I would like to highlight a reason why the believers might remain in view of the dissonance caused by failure: I would say it is “group loyalty”.
Cult leadership recognizes from experience that the individual human psyche is strongly motivated to fulfill its social obligations to its chosen group. What the JW org offers even though it rarely if ever spells it out, is not just the fantasy hope of paradise but a ”personal identity,” a meaningful sense of self within a religious community. You support the group and they support you. Loyalty and group identity.
For the believer, group loyalty means believing that you have a role to play, you are not a drifting non-entity... you can become a respected member with lots of like minded buddies. This can even compensate for the lack of love you may have experienced in an abusive family, the believer gets a new bunch of brothers and sisters and even new and rather strict parents in the shape of the governing body telling you what to do.
This reward of identity counts more than the truthfulness or error which its leaderships claims because the unthinking pride of group loyalty. Because it is based on the psychological model of ”family,” it transcends all other considerations. So the periodic shock of prophetic failure by the JW org is buffered and mitigated by the more important sense of blind attachment to the social group. “We can ride it out together” is the logic defying spirit.
Of course if reason or research or even a recognition of self-worth were to enter the picture; former loyalties might evaporate.